I’ve really enjoyed reading your blog so far this election.

One big reason why I think most people interested in American politics are predicting an Obama victory is the Senator’s performance, relative to polling, in the primaries and caucuses. Belying the erstwhile “Bradley effect”, Obama’s vote share exceeded, on average, the predictions of pre-election polling.

The relative extent of this effect seems to be related to the racial composition of different states, and the challenges pollsters had in predicting who would comprise the eventual turnout. A clear explanation of this claim is here http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/reverse-bradley-effect-fact-or-fiction.html

So, when we conflate polls’ underestimation of Obama’s true support with the myriad structural advantages he possesses, it suggests it’s a very speculative year to back the gop.